Sun Zhengyi Gives AI Development Timeline for the First Time

Sun Zhengyi Delivers a Speech at the Softbank World Enterprise Conference Based on Visual China

On October 4th local time, Sun Zhengyi, founder and CEO of Softbank Group, stated that he believes that General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) will become a reality within 10 years, and AI will be 10000 times smarter than humans within 20 years.

For example, Sun Zhengyi said that the intellectual gap between humans and monkeys is about 10 times, and the number of brain cells in humans is about 10000 times that of goldfish. He believes that if we don't catch the fast train of the AI era, outdated people will be completely eliminated.

Sun Zhengyi issued a warning:

Do you want to become goldfish?

Sun Zhengyi, Chairman and President of Softbank Group (SBG), delivered a speech at the Softbank World Enterprise Conference held in Tokyo on the 4th, stating that "rejecting or accepting AI will create a decisive gap in human development in the future." He emphasized the need for Japanese companies to actively utilize AI for development.

Sun Zhengyi believes that the development speed of generative AI technology is very rapid, and universal artificial intelligence that can handle all types of problems will become a reality in the next 10 years. Sun Zhengyi said, "AI can now learn, train, and reason on its own like humans, so the idea that AI cannot be smarter than the humans who invented AI is wrong." He believes that according to the speed of technological development, AGI can be 10 times higher than the sum of all human intelligence, which is probably the difference between humans and monkeys.

Sun Zhengyi predicts that AGI will be realized within ten years

Sun Zhengyi has been discussing the potential of AGI to change human business and society for many years, but this is the first time he has given a development timeline. He also proposed the concept of "artificial super intelligence" at the meeting, claiming that it will be realized within 20 years, and by then, "artificial super intelligence" will be 10000 times smarter than humans, equivalent to the difference in the number of brain cells between humans and goldfish.

Sun Zhengyi pointed out that about 57% of companies in the United States already use tools such as ChatGPT in their daily business, while only 7% of companies in Japan embrace AI technology, and 75% of companies prohibit the use of AI tools. If it's just that we haven't started using it yet, we can still encourage it. If we adopt a mentality of prohibiting use, it will be a serious problem.

For this mentality of rejecting AI technology, Sun Zhengyi believes that it is just like the people who have rejected advanced products such as electric lights and cars in history, and history has proven the greatness of the power and automotive industries. Those who say that AI can make mistakes, just like those who say that using electricity can cause explosions and driving can cause car accidents, belong to those who cannot accept the arrival of a new era psychologically and make excuses

Sun Zhengyi finally shouted loudly, "Wake up, Japan! Do you want to become goldfish in the future

Investment performance plummeted

Softbank is outdated in the AI era

In recent years, the investment performance of Softbank Group has plummeted, and Sun Zhengyi's personal aura has also faded significantly.

According to the first quarter report of the 2024 fiscal year recently released by Softbank Group, the net sales for the financial quarter were 1.56 trillion yen, approximately 78.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; The net loss attributable to the owner of the parent company was 477.62 billion yen, equivalent to approximately 24.168 billion yuan. By comparison, the net loss for the same period last year was 3.2 trillion yen, equivalent to approximately 161.92 billion yuan.

The report also shows that SoftBank's investment loss in the quarter was 699 billion yen, equivalent to approximately 35.369 billion yuan. The loss for the same period last year was 2834.4 billion yen, equivalent to approximately 143.421 billion yuan.

Data allocation and mapping based on ICphoto

As early as 2017, Sun Zhengyi ambitiously launched the world's largest private equity technology investment fund, the "Vision Fund". In 2018, Sun Zhengyi told investors, "We are not blindly investing, we only focus on one theme, which is artificial intelligence." By 2020, he also boasted that he would make SoftBank a "revolutionary trendsetter in AI investment. Between 2017 and 2022, Sun Zhengyi mentioned "AI" more than 500 times in his quarterly and annual performance reports. He once told investors that AI will "redefine all industries" and lead a powerful new wave of information revolution.

However, although Sun Zhengyi had an early interest in the field of artificial intelligence, SoftBank can be described as "getting up early and catching up late in the AI era". The latest data from PitchBook, a venture capital database, shows that SoftBank has only invested in one of the 26 generative AI startups with valuations exceeding $1 billion worldwide. In contrast, SoftBank's "arch rivals" such as Tiger Global Investment Fund have invested in multiple unicorn companies in this field.

Faced with a weak start to the AI era, Sun Zhengyi has repeatedly publicly shouted to investors this year to boost confidence. At the shareholders' meeting of Softbank in June this year, Sun Zhengyi once again said that the AI wave has provided new opportunities. He also stated that he is a heavy user of ChatGPT and has been researching AI every day recently, and is "ashamed of having made many investment mistakes in the past".

At that time, Sun Zhengyi also stated that Softbank Group would step out of the "passive defense" mode and take the initiative to attack and take the lead in the AI field.

Article source: Red Star News